Contrasting effects of climate change in continental vs. oceanic environments on population persistence and microevolution of Atlantic salmon

Année de publication



Global Change Biology 19 711 723 3


Facing climate change (CC), species are prone to multiple modifications in their environment that can lead to extinction, migration or adaptation. Identifying the role and interplay of different potential stressors becomes a key question. Anadromous fishes will be exposed to both river and oceanic habitat changes. For Atlantic salmon, the river water temperature, river flow and oceanic growth conditions appear as three main stressing factors. They could act on population dynamics or as selective forces on life‐history pathways. Using an individual‐based demo‐genetic model, we assessed the effects of these factors (1) to compare risks of extinction resulting from CC in river and ocean, and (2) to assess CC effects on life‐history pathways including the evolution of underlying genetic control of phenotypic plasticity. We focused on Atlantic salmon populations from Southern Europe for a time horizon of three decades. We showed that CC in river alone should not lead to extinction of Southern European salmon populations. In contrast, the reduced oceanic growth appeared as a significant threat for population persistence. An increase in river flow amplitude increased the risk of local extinction in synergy with the oceanic effects, but river temperature rise reduced this risk. In terms of life‐history modifications, the reduced oceanic growth increased the age of return of individuals through plastic and genetic responses. The river temperature rise increased the proportion of sexually mature parr, but the genetic evolution of the maturation threshold lowered the maturation rate of male parr. This was identified as a case of environmentally driven plastic response that masked an underlying evolutionary response of plasticity going in the opposite direction. We concluded that to counteract oceanic effects, river flow management represented the sole potential force to reduce the extinction probability of Atlantic salmon populations in Southern Europe, although this might not impede changes in migration life history.

Type de publication
  • journal
Type de document
  • article
Classification - Inist-CNRS
    Classification - Scopus
    • 1 - Physical Sciences
    • 2 - Environmental Science
    • 3 - General Environmental Science
    • 3 - Ecology
    • 3 - Environmental Chemistry
    • 3 - Global and Planetary Change
    Classification - Science Metrix
    • 1 - natural sciences
    • 2 - biology
    • 3 - ecology
    Classification - Clarivate Analytics (Subject Category)
    • 1 - science
    • 2 - environmental sciences
    • 2 - ecology
    • 2 - biodiversity conservation
    Termes extraits

    parr; salar; oceanic; atlantic salmon; salmo; anadromous; phenotypic; salmo salar; jonsson; salmonid; ecology; global change biology; climate change; ibasam; piou; modelling; blackwell publishing; smolt; salmon; ampflow; river temperature; mangel; meannoisesea; stressor; riverine; aquatic; phenotypic plasticity; aquatic sciences; hutchings; eant; adaptive; eann; pathway; heritable; canadian journal; maturation; river temperature increase; growth conditions; water temperature; fishery; fish biology; heritable threshold value; crozier; scenario; jager; anadromous individuals; oceanic conditions; marine science; oceanic growth condition reduction; evolutionary response; jonsson jonsson; plastic response; population persistence; ices journal; southern europe; simulation; oceanic growth; oceanic growth conditions; eant ampflow; river temperature rise; smolt size; population dynamics; mature parr; extinction risk; ecological modelling; american fisheries society; parr frequency; amplitude increase; population size; time horizon; extinction; oceanic growth reduction; linear increase; model structure; garcia valiente; reaction norms; population structure; environmental conditions; male returns; sockeye salmon; male parr maturation; evolutionary dynamics; southern european rivers; temperature increase; southern european populations; anadromous salmonids; chinook salmon; population extinction; developmental switches; river maturation; environmental changes; wild populations; opposite direction; biological sciences; male parr; genetic evolution; evolutionary applications; local extinction; atlantic salmon populations; royal society; ocean growth conditions; plasticity; evolutionary; global; temperature rise; population demography; southern european salmon populations; life cycles; lifehistory strategies; several years; wild atlantic salmon; early maturation; year simulations; response variables; initial values; relative importance; higher values; shery exploitation; river maturation tactic; salar populations; riverine maturation; previous studies; climate change scenarios; mature males; river phase; growth capacity; oceanic survival; oceanic environments; ibasam simulations; maturation thresholds; parr growth; stream temperature; dumas prouzet; marine conditions; black arrow; miramichi river; other hand; juvenile density; growth reduction; other studies; smolt production; hutchings jones; marine climate; life histories; conservation biology; further modelling work; complex life cycles; life cycle; adaptive peak; environmental change; plastic responses; phenotypic expression; riverine parr; environmental threshold model; modelling framework; atlantic salmon salmo salar; scorff river; male atlantic salmon; demographic changes; animal ecology; oceanic effects; temperature regimes; linear reduction; freshwater biology; annual review; juvenile atlantic salmon; growth rate; oncorhynchus mykiss; ecology evolution; population level; multiple stressors; individual variability; evolutionary ecology; freshwater fish; population viability; population parameters

    Entité nommée
    Entité nommée - Emplacement géographique
    • Montpellier
    • Canada
    • American
    • Europe
    • New Brunswick
    • France
    Entité nommée - Organisme
    • Core writing team
    • IPCC
    • Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Entité nommée - Personne
    C. Tentelier; J.L. Baglinire; L. Beaulaton; L. Dedieu; A. Bardonnet; N. Son; E. Beall; C. Maraval; J. Labonne; P. Gaudin; V. Grimm
    Powered by Lodex 8.19.1