Will climate change promote future invasions?

Année de publication



Global Change Biology 19 3740 3748 12


Biological invasion is increasingly recognized as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Using ensemble forecasts from species distribution models to project future suitable areas of the 100 of the world's worst invasive species defined by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, we show that both climate and land use changes will likely cause drastic species range shifts. Looking at potential spatial aggregation of invasive species, we identify three future hotspots of invasion in Europe, northeastern North America, and Oceania. We also emphasize that some regions could lose a significant number of invasive alien species, creating opportunities for ecosystem restoration. From the list of 100, scenarios of potential range distributions show a consistent shrinking for invasive amphibians and birds, while for aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates distributions are projected to substantially increase in most cases. Given the harmful impacts these invasive species currently have on ecosystems, these species will likely dramatically influence the future of biodiversity.

Type de publication
  • journal
Type de document
  • article
Classification - Inist-CNRS
    Classification - Scopus
    • 1 - Physical Sciences
    • 2 - Environmental Science
    • 3 - General Environmental Science
    • 3 - Ecology
    • 3 - Environmental Chemistry
    • 3 - Global and Planetary Change
    Classification - Science Metrix
    • 1 - natural sciences
    • 2 - biology
    • 3 - ecology
    Classification - Clarivate Analytics (Subject Category)
    • 1 - science
    • 2 - environmental sciences
    • 2 - ecology
    • 2 - biodiversity conservation
    Termes extraits

    invasive; ecology; invasive species; biome; alien species; global change biology; ecosystem; scenario; thuiller; climate change; biodiversity; taxonomic; climatic; john wiley sons; aquatic; invertebrate; potential distribution; biological invasions; species distributions; global; boyce index; different taxonomic groups; national academy; species distribution models; global change; global ecology; ecology evolution; terrestrial invertebrates; boyce; tropical regions; taxonomic groups; tropical forest; future hotspots; conservation biology; central africa; northern hemisphere; climatic variables; lower latitudes; range size; emission scenarios; central america; restoration opportunities; international union; ensemble projections; model performance; wooded tundra; true skill statistics; prime relevance; invasive amphibians; emission scenario; northeastern europe; invasive species specialist group; climate scenario; future scenarios; islands regions; eastern australia; species distribution; many studies; higher latitudes; circulation models; celine bellard; range size change; niche models; aquatic plants; suitable pixels; climatic suitability; aquatic invertebrates; future invasions; ensemble forecasting; millennium ecosystem assessment; international journal; soil properties; plant invasions; maximum entropy; biological conservation; species; temperate

    Entité nommée
    Entité nommée - Emplacement géographique
    • Paris
    • United States
    • Australia
    • Grenoble
    • Brazil
    • Rennes
    • Europe
    • America
    • Rome
    • France
    • Russia
    • Italy
    Entité nommée - Organisme
    • Environmental Assessment Agency
    • Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
    • South Australia and New Zealand
    • Netherlands Abstract Biological
    • Sons Ltd
    • United States, Central America and Africa
    • Australia and New Zealand
    • Portugal, Spain and France
    • PBL
    • United States, India and eastern China
    • Canada and Greenland
    • European Research Council
    Entité nommée - Personne
    Australia; John Wiley; Gloria Luque; Elsa Bonnaud; Jessica Albate; Celine Bellard; Josh Donlan; Indonesia
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