Climate change hastens the turnover of stream fish assemblages

Année de publication



Global Change Biology 14 2232 2248 10


Stream fish are expected to be significantly influenced by climate change, as they are ectothermic animals whose dispersal is limited within hydrographic networks. Nonetheless, they are also controlled by other physical factors that may prevent them moving to new thermally suitable sites. Using presence–absence records in 655 sites widespread throughout nine French river units, we predicted the potential future distribution of 30 common stream fish species facing temperature warming and change in precipitation regime. We also assessed the potential impacts on fish assemblages' structure and diversity. Only cold‐water species, whose diversity is very low in French streams, were predicted to experience a strong reduction in the number of suitable sites. In contrast, most cool‐water and warm‐water fish species were projected to colonize many newly suitable sites. Considering that cold headwater streams are the most numerous on the Earth's surface, our results suggested that headwater species would undergo a deleterious effect of climate change, whereas downstream species would expand their range by migrating to sites located in intermediate streams or upstream. As a result, local species richness was forecasted to increase greatly and high turnover rates indicated future fundamental changes in assemblages' structure. Changes in assemblage composition were also positively related to the intensity of warming. Overall, these results (1) stressed the importance of accounting for both climatic and topographic factors when assessing the future distribution of riverine fish species and (2) may be viewed as a first estimation of climate change impacts on European freshwater fish assemblages.

Type de publication
  • journal
Type de document
  • article
Classification - Inist-CNRS
  • 1 - sciences appliquees, technologies et medecines
  • 2 - sciences biologiques et medicales
  • 3 - sciences biologiques fondamentales et appliquees. psychologie
Classification - Scopus
  • 1 - Physical Sciences
  • 2 - Environmental Science
  • 3 - General Environmental Science
  • 3 - Ecology
  • 3 - Environmental Chemistry
  • 3 - Global and Planetary Change
Classification - Science Metrix
  • 1 - natural sciences
  • 2 - biology
  • 3 - ecology
Classification - Clarivate Analytics (Subject Category)
  • 1 - science
  • 2 - environmental sciences
  • 2 - ecology
  • 2 - biodiversity conservation
Termes extraits

climate change; global change biology; scenario; thuiller; climatic; ecology; cyprinidae; blackwell publishing; authors journal compilation; freshwater; species distribution; species richness; potential impacts; modelling; araujo; biogeography; broennimann; ecosystem; climatic variables; gobio; dataset; river units; suitable sites; dispersal; climate warming; headwater; descriptor; trutta; assemblage structure; permutation; barbu; fario; guisan; precipitation; assemblage; global ecology; global; niche; turnover; river unit; species turnover; niche position; niche breadth; trutta fario; ecological; environmental descriptors; ecological niche parameters; species distribution models; intermediate streams; french streams; niche parameters; eaton sheller; suitable habitats; previous studies; species distributions; freshwater biology; pearson dawson; potential changes; ecology letters; climate change impacts; ecological modelling; chapman hall; biotic interactions; global warming; thermal variables; pessimistic scenario; fielding bell; species codes; future distributions; headwater streams; future predictions; permutation test; millennium ecosystem assessment; species sensitivity; species; biology; prevalence; climate; blackwell; ecology evolution; drainage basin; stream width; longitudinal gradient; climatic gradients; minns moore; hydrographic networks; montecarlo permutation test; jackson mandrak; frequency distribution; random values; smallmouth bass; thermal habitat; generalized additive models; english channel garonne loire mediterranean meuse; atlantic ocean rhine rhone seine; maximum values; cold headwater streams; independent variables; climate change scenarios; species occurrence; past glaciations; development core team; validation dataset; selection procedure; explanatory power; aquatic sciences; species models; guisan thuiller; threshold value; geographical position; future probabilities; other organisms; laboratoire evolution; species responses; same permutation test; nonclimatic factors; cambridge university press; turnover value; climatic scenario; local species richness; potential future distribution; recent studies; future distribution; dispersal ability; barbus meridionalis; milieux aquatiques; french rivers; rhodeus amarus; environmental conditions; specialized species; predictive performances; standard deviations; drainage basins; english channel; site losses; atlantic ocean; white circles; black dots; linear relationship; positive relationship; diversite biologique; distributional area; habitat loss; climate data; large number; turnover rates; further studies; physical factors; potential effects; annual precipitation; potential biotic interactions; natural dispersal; species diversity; coldest month; warmest month; water temperature; toulouse cedex; freshwater fish; emission scenarios; special report; intergovernmental panel; ectothermic animals; american fisheries society; potential habitat loss; world resources institute; habitat conditions; deviance; richness

Entité nommée
Entité nommée - Emplacement géographique
  • Grenoble
  • Canada
  • Narbonne
  • America
  • Toulouse
  • France
Entité nommée - Organisme
  • R Development Core Team
  • Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
  • Blackwell Publishing Ltd
  • Climatic Research Unit Climatology
Entité nommée - Personne
Hadley Centre; F. Leprieur; The; C. Shinn; To
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