21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe

Année de publication



Global Change Biology 17 2330 2341 7


Continental‐scale assessments of 21st century global impacts of climate change on biodiversity have forecasted range contractions for many species. These coarse resolution studies are, however, of limited relevance for projecting risks to biodiversity in mountain systems, where pronounced microclimatic variation could allow species to persist locally, and are ill‐suited for assessment of species‐specific threat in particular regions. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on 2632 plant species across all major European mountain ranges, using high‐resolution (ca. 100 m) species samples and data expressing four future climate scenarios. Projected habitat loss is greater for species distributed at higher elevations; depending on the climate scenario, we find 36–55% of alpine species, 31–51% of subalpine species and 19–46% of montane species lose more than 80% of their suitable habitat by 2070–2100. While our high‐resolution analyses consistently indicate marked levels of threat to cold‐adapted mountain florae across Europe, they also reveal unequal distribution of this threat across the various mountain ranges. Impacts on florae from regions projected to undergo increased warming accompanied by decreased precipitation, such as the Pyrenees and the Eastern Austrian Alps, will likely be greater than on florae in regions where the increase in temperature is less pronounced and rainfall increases concomitantly, such as in the Norwegian Scandes and the Scottish Highlands. This suggests that change in precipitation, not only warming, plays an important role in determining the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation.

Type de publication
  • journal
Type de document
  • article
Classification - Inist-CNRS
  • 1 - sciences appliquees, technologies et medecines
  • 2 - sciences biologiques et medicales
  • 3 - sciences biologiques fondamentales et appliquees. psychologie
Classification - Scopus
  • 1 - Physical Sciences
  • 2 - Environmental Science
  • 3 - General Environmental Science
  • 3 - Ecology
  • 3 - Environmental Chemistry
  • 3 - Global and Planetary Change
Classification - Science Metrix
  • 1 - natural sciences
  • 2 - biology
  • 3 - ecology
Classification - Clarivate Analytics (Subject Category)
  • 1 - science
  • 2 - environmental sciences
  • 2 - ecology
  • 2 - biodiversity conservation
Termes extraits

climate change; alpine; study area; global change biology; a1fi; thuiller; orae; scenario; ecology; guisan; pyrenees; habitat loss; blackwell publishing; suitable habitats; precipitation; scandes; vegetation belt; suitable habitat; alps; surface extent; datasets; theurillat; biodiversity; araujo; climate change scenarios; randin; study areas; mountain ranges; species distributions; ecosystem; spanish pyrenees; engler; subalpine; altitudinal; logistic regressions; norwegian scandes; scottish highlands; elevation gradient; plant species; potential impacts; elevation; french alps; biotic interactions; error bars; eastern austrian alps; relative sensitivity; elevation range; vegetation; modeling; global; consensus projections; global warming; study area elevation range; response curves; climate change scenario; spatial resolution; ensemble forecasting; species distribution models; altitudinal gradient; intergovernmental panel; vegetation plots; alpine species; carpathians; outlying models; model calibration; full details; warmer temperatures; hadley centre; niche conservatism; species datasets; cambridge university press; environmental conditions; global change; individual models; resolution data; potential habitat; mountain areas; evaluation value; bare rock; study elevation range; montane species; theurillat guisan; major european mountain ranges; norwegian; logistic; habitat; species; invaluable resources; time period; alpine plants; plant diversity; species distribution modeling; mountain range; generalized additive models; multivariate adaptive regression splines; limited relevance; important role; potential climate change impacts; modeling techniques; environmental variables; republicii street; suitable habitat loss; various mountain ranges; mountain ecosystems; climate change impacts; development core team; predictive power; individual model; true skill statistic; potential distribution; perfect agreement; model evaluation; spatial projections; different projections; future distribution; subalpine species; species habitat loss levels; plant ecology; landscape ecology; guisan thuiller; bryophytes details; fourier grenoble; ecosystem services; spatial accuracy; standardized methods; annual temperature; study area surface extent; negative values; positive values; a1fi climate change scenario; lower degree; scandes scot; highlands swiss west; alps swiss; austrian alps; species pools; blue areas; distribution models; high elevation species; lower elevations; species pool; global ecology; mountain plants; climatic change; ecology letters; vascular plants; species distribution; vegetation science; niche

Entité nommée
Entité nommée - Emplacement géographique
  • Switzerland
  • Nancy
  • Grenoble
  • Norway
  • Austria
  • Romania
  • Cluj-Napoca
  • JACA
  • Madrid
  • Jaca
  • Europe
  • Vienna
  • Bergen
  • Basel
  • Denmark
  • New Zealand
  • Portugal
  • Lausanne
  • France
  • Copenhagen
  • Cambridge
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • Birmensdorf
  • Lleida
Entité nommée - Organisme
  • R Development Core Team
  • Department of Biological Sciences, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade
  • Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation and Analyses
  • MRI
  • United Nations Environment Programme
  • Cambridge University
  • Laboratory of Functional Ecology and Global Change
  • UK Abstract Continental
  • Herbette Foundation, the Faculty of Geosciences and Environment
  • Department of Biology, University of Bergen, Postbox
  • IPCC
  • University of Vienna
  • University of Lausanne
  • Blackwell Publishing Ltd
  • Department of Conservation Biology, Vegetation and Landscape
  • Department of Biology, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken
  • National Museum
  • Agency Austria, Dep
  • Federal Research Institute WSL, Zuercherstr
  • University of Molise
  • Institute of Biological Research, Republicii Street
  • Norwegian Research Council
  • Bolyai University
  • UK Met Of
  • University of Lleida
  • Landscape Institute, Fana
  • Mountain Research Initiative
  • Swiss National Science Foundation
Entité nommée - Personne
European; Rui Nabeiro; Mountain Map; Jose Gutierrez; Robin Engler; Hadley Centre; M. Aubert; J. Fourier
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