Hydrological sensitivity of the Adour‐Garonne river basin to climate change

Année de publication



Water Resources Research 43 n/a n/a 7


Output atmospheric fields from seven global climate models (GCMs) were extracted over a domain covering the Adour‐Garonne basin in southwestern France in order to calculate precipitation and temperature anomalies for the decade 2050–2060 relative to the present climate. These anomalies showed a general trend of increasing precipitation in wintertime and decreasing precipitation in summertime, together with an increase in the annual average temperature of approximately 2°C. The anomalies were used to create seven modified climate‐forcing data sets, which were then used to drive the SAFRAN‐ISBA‐MODCOU (SIM) hydrometeorological modeling system. The river discharge simulated by the SIM model under each modified climate for the 2050–2060 decade was compared to the discharge simulated for the 1985–1995 reference decade. The results show a slight decrease in the low river flow, on the order of 11% ± 8% on average for all of the climate‐forcing data sets and the hydrometric stations. However, there was a significant impact on the snowpack in terms of reduced snow cover depth and duration. These changes provoked a discharge decrease in the spring and a large increase in winter due to the additional liquid precipitation. Considering the large range in climate conditions of the period studied, it appears that the hydrological sensitivity of the river basin is greater when applying the same climate modification to a wet year as opposed to a dry year. Finally, a transient climate forcing covering the 1985–2095 period provokes a general tendency to decrease the river discharge for all seasons.

Type de publication
  • journal
Type de document
  • article
Classification - Inist-CNRS
    Classification - Scopus
    • 1 - Physical Sciences
    • 2 - Environmental Science
    • 3 - Water Science and Technology
    Classification - Science Metrix
    • 1 - applied sciences
    • 2 - engineering
    • 3 - environmental engineering
    Classification - Clarivate Analytics (Subject Category)
    • 1 - science
    • 2 - water resources
    • 2 - limnology
    • 2 - environmental sciences
    Termes extraits

    precipitation; hydrological; scenario; climate change; noilhan; caballero; hydrometric; garonne; hydrological sensitivity; aquifer; adour; groundwater; river basin; isba; habets; etchevers; grid; hydrol; gcms; climate scenarios; hydrometeorological; foix; anomaly; july; river flow; river discharge; tonneins; ariege; hydrometric stations; water resour; climatic; safran; water resources; resour; simulation; modeling; wettest; driest; october; clim; soil water content; continuous scenario; rhone; nash; parameterization; basin; precipitation anomalies; hydrological processes; present climate; climate scenario impacts; river flows; climate scenario; river discharges; garonne river; landes aquifer; same order; climate change impact; temperature increase; toulouse; monthly temperature; driest year; precipitation increase; standard deviation; spatial resolution; deep drainage; grid cells; present study; continuous climate scenario; discharge decrease; hydrometeorological modeling system; temperature anomalies; river discharge decrease; solid precipitation; discharge ratios; climate change scenarios; variability; landes; base flow; wdrain values; emission scenarios; future climate conditions; possible impacts; changement climatique; spatial variability; monthly values; general tendency; adour river basin; global warming; recherche meteorologiques; grid cell; monthly discharges; present decade; data sets; rhone basin; bassin adour garonne; human activity; present state; superficial reservoirs; simulation results; different scenarios; wettest year; geographic situation; field capacity; runoff; boone; global; discharge; climate; salat portet; channel supply; water storage; avenue coriolis; western part; southern europe; characteristic discharge; spatial distribution; surface water; groundwater reservoirs; groundwater levels; regional scale; heavy rainfall events; basin figure; efficiency criteria; monthly river discharges; monthly river discharge; nash criterion; statistical criteria; good agreement; drainage network; hydrological responses; time slice; temperature fields; model simulation; immeuble agostini; ariege auterive; ariege valentine; garonne roquefort; northern part; garonne lamagistere; southern part; garonne tonneins; garonne villemur; tarn loubejac; aveyron estirac; adour aire; adour audon; adour escos; grande echelle; precipitation values; safran analysis; whole year; mediterranean region; meteorological parameters; energy exchanges; results show; water content; vegetation type; climate models; pyrenean chain; hydrological simulation; time step; foix hydrometric station; greater impact; extreme values; seasonal variability; present discharge; joaquin river basins; july october; river basins; foix river gauge; precipitation deficit; discharge increase; more precipitation; higher temperatures; lower snow; important role; surface runoff; foix station; substantial differences; other studies; daily time step; mountain site; whole basin; river cells; daily discharges; hydrometric station; other basins; extreme situations; southwestern france; hydrological year; global climate models; hydrometeorological processes; total rainfall; wettest years; precipitation decrease; humid soil; climatic conditions; driest years; general decrease; physiographic parameters; downscaling methods; global environ; soil texture; meteorological grid; land surface scheme; study area; winter rainfall; reference stations; water budget; hydrologic trends; climatic changes; isba surface scheme; macroscale hydrological model; changements climatiques; toulouse cedex; centre

    Entité nommée
    Entité nommée - Emplacement géographique
    • Sacramento
    • Fontainebleau
    • Foix
    • San Joaquin
    • Luxembourg
    • Europe
    • Bergerac
    • St Vincent
    • Saint Vincent
    • France
    • Spain
    Entité nommée - Organisme
    • HC
    • Organization
    • Meteo-France, Toulouse, France
    • University of Reading
    • Â CO
    • French Institute of Agronomy
    • American Geophysical Union
    • Centre National Recherche Meteorologique, Meteo-France, Toulouse
    • France Action Recherche Petite Echelle
    • Adour-Garonne Basin Research Institute and Abbreviation Spatial Resolution Low-Resolution Models Hadley Centre, England
    • Australia, Central America and South Africa
    • INRA
    • UR
    • California Department of Water Resources
    • AGWA
    • AdourGaronne River Basin Water Management Agency
    Entité nommée - Personne
    Valentine Roquefort; Nash; A. Boone; J. M. Gresillon; Hay; SIM System; McCabe; Alain Lehenaff; Sophie Voirin-Morel; Xu; Max Mean; E. Leblois; S. Voirin-Morel; Gleick; Min Max; Florence Habets; Aire Audon; A. Lehenaff; Z.I. de Furiani; F. Habets; Joel Noilhan; P. LeMoigne; J. Noilhan; Patrick LeMoigne
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