Impacts of climate change on avian populations

Année de publication



Global Change Biology 19 2036 2057 7


This review focuses on the impacts of climate change on population dynamics. I introduce the MUP (Measuring, Understanding, and Predicting) approach, which provides a general framework where an enhanced understanding of climate‐population processes, along with improved long‐term data, are merged into coherent projections of future population responses to climate change. This approach can be applied to any species, but this review illustrates its benefit using birds as examples. Birds are one of the best‐studied groups and a large number of studies have detected climate impacts on vital rates (i.e., life history traits, such as survival, maturation, or breeding, affecting changes in population size and composition) and population abundance. These studies reveal multifaceted effects of climate with direct, indirect, time‐lagged, and nonlinear effects. However, few studies integrate these effects into a climate‐dependent population model to understand the respective role of climate variables and their components (mean state, variability, extreme) on population dynamics. To quantify how populations cope with climate change impacts, I introduce a new universal variable: the ‘population robustness to climate change.’ The comparison of such robustness, along with prospective and retrospective analysis may help to identify the major climate threats and characteristics of threatened avian species. Finally, studies projecting avian population responses to future climate change predicted by IPCC‐class climate models are rare. Population projections hinge on selecting a multiclimate model ensemble at the appropriate temporal and spatial scales and integrating both radiative forcing and internal variability in climate with fully specified uncertainties in both demographic and climate processes.

Type de publication
  • journal
Type de document
  • review-article
Classification - Inist-CNRS
  • 1 - sciences appliquees, technologies et medecines
  • 2 - sciences biologiques et medicales
  • 3 - sciences biologiques fondamentales et appliquees. psychologie
Classification - Scopus
  • 1 - Physical Sciences
  • 2 - Environmental Science
  • 3 - General Environmental Science
  • 3 - Ecology
  • 3 - Environmental Chemistry
  • 3 - Global and Planetary Change
Classification - Science Metrix
  • 1 - natural sciences
  • 2 - biology
  • 3 - ecology
Classification - Clarivate Analytics (Subject Category)
  • 1 - science
  • 2 - environmental sciences
  • 2 - ecology
  • 2 - biodiversity conservation
Termes extraits

climate change; ecology; vital rates; jenouvrier; penguin; global change biology; barbraud; avian; seabird; caswell; climatic; blackwell publishing; weimerskirch; ipcc; aogcms; stochastic; climate models; stochasticity; population dynamics; engen; uctuations; royal society; future climate change; population responses; population size; adult survival; visser; population growth rate; extreme events; precipitation; multimodel; scenario; sres; albatross; knutti; population growth; altwegg; antarctic; climate variations; animal ecology; auklet; ecosystem; climate conditions; population robustness; nevoux; philosophical transactions; variability; climate; dugger; population trajectories; wormworth; nonlinear; environmental stochasticity; ecologist; variance; emperor penguins; oxford university press; upwelling; avian populations; natural variability; tit; peery; population models; demographic stochasticity; ecological; modeling; climatic conditions; southern ocean; juvenile survival; spatial scales; stochastic growth rate; population model; marine ecology progress series; future population responses; biological sciences; density dependence; robustness; global; dispersal; predictive ecology; sensitivity analysis; national academy; time series; life cycle; population projections; stochastic predictions; climate impacts; climate variables; dynamics; life history traits; statistical properties; surface temperature; population response; american naturalist; climatic niche; ecology letters; climate variability; phenotypic plasticity; climate effects; demographic processes; ecological research; vital rate variations; regional model; avian population responses; nonbreeding season; intergovernmental panel; species persistence; emissions scenarios; climate modeling; model selection; bird populations; multimodel ensemble; ecological processes; climate model; emperor penguin population; parameter uncertainty; median; retrospective; sparrow; matrix; environmental canalization theory; barbraud weimerskirch; respective effects; retrospective analyses; internal variability; great tits; emperor penguin; demographic parameters; project population responses; cambridge university press; avian studies; bird studies; retrospective analysis; woods hole; bird species; future climate conditions; upwelling intensity; several studies; atlantic oscillation; climate predictions; temporal variations; climate change impacts; population declines; population trends; tyto alba; respective role; tebaldi knutti; stochastic population growth rate; temporal variation; grey area; policy makers; altwegg anderson; life history; population change; nonlinear effects; animal populations; climatic niche breadth; large number; food availability; winter temperature; long time scales; biological conservation; biology; blackwell; trait; trajectory; extinction; extreme weather events; same climate; major climate threats; various approaches; climate regime shifts; various models; individual weather events; particular year; climate processes; parameter estimates; avian species; better understanding; general pattern; thorough understanding; indirect effects; population abundances; beech crop; recruitment processes; parametrize population models; negative effects; ocean climate change; intrinsic population rate; greater chance; quintero wiens; climate covariate; life expectancy; population growth rates; offspring recruitment; other hand; nonlinear relationship; common noddies; temporal variability; population recovery; vital rates life history traits; population decline; general framework; studies focus; assessment report; important driver; variance decomposition; stochastic environments; general patterns; life history gradient; climatic zones; multifaceted effects; coherent projections; academic press; climate dynamics; avian responses; emmerson southwell; ecological impact; entire life cycle; complex interplay; habitat availability; allocation processes; duck species; stochastic forecasts; individual heterogeneity; francisco estuary; preindustrial levels; emperor colonies; adult survival variations; high rise; global climate change; special report; environmental variations; different assumptions; future greenhouse; various sources; important role; project population persistence; sand lance; climate system; growth rate; mitigation strategies; important characteristics; real climate system; several aogcms; adverse weather conditions; lower mississippi river; climate output; sterna antillarum; harsh winters; climate changes; multimodel ensembles; barn owls; climate model diagnosis; single model; climate outputs; good proxy; regional climate models; regional climate model; boundary conditions; nonlinear relationships; time series analysis; respective roles; linear climate forecast; lefebvre goosse; linear trend; warmer ssts; stochastic climate forecasts; white stork; mastrandrea mach; population viability; time horizon; hierarchical process; numerous studies; measurement errors; model uncertainties; structural uncertainties; model weights; maximum likelihood; model structure; atmospheric indices; unknown levels; different sources; observation error; prediction intervals; demographic models; spatial dynamics; local climate conditions; population synchrony; moran effect; metapopulation models; population persistence; various levels; ecological monographs; demographic effects; local climate; southern ocean seabirds; statistical evidence; caterpillar abundance; ecological applications; warmer springs; opposite directions; conservation biology; food abundance; further research; princeton university press; evolutionary biology; environmental change; dispersal processes; saether engen; causal relationships; antarctic seabirds; extinction risk; stochastic population dynamics; royal society sciences; migratory species; recent climate change; fourth assessment report; individual climate variables; climatic change; climate factors; climate change research; environmental variability; small populations; simulation; environmental

Entité nommée
Entité nommée - Emplacement géographique
  • Mexico
  • Penzance
  • Europe
  • San Francisco
  • Amsterdam
  • Netherlands
Entité nommée - Organisme
  • US Department of Energy
  • World Meteorological Organization
  • Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Entité nommée - Personne
K. Dugger; Karine Delord; Marika Holland; E. Sæther; El Ni; Stephanie Jenouvrier; International; Henri Weimerskirch; Hal Caswell; Emile Victor; Lancelin Island; L. Aubry; Christophe Barbraud; Scientists
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