Simulation of potential range expansion of oak disease caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi under climate change

Année de publication



Global Change Biology 10 1539 1552 9


This study examines the effects of climate warming on one of the most widely distributed and destructive forest pathogens, Phytophthora cinnamomi. In Europe, the winter survival of the pathogen is the dominant cue for the development of the disease it causes to oaks, especially Quercus robur and Q. rubra. The potential pathogen and disease geographic ranges were compared in France between two reference periods, 1968–1998 and 2070–2099. Simulations were obtained by combining a physiologically based approach predicting the pathogen winter survival in relation to microhabitat temperature (in the phloem of infected trees) with a regionalized climatic scenario derived from a global circulation model. Positive anomalies in winter temperatures calculated with this scenario were in the range 0.5–5°C between the periods 2070–2099 and the 1968–1998, according to sites and months. As a consequence, higher annual rates of P. cinnamomi survival were predicted, resulting in a potential range expansion of the disease of one to a few hundred kilometers eastward from the Atlantic coast within one century. Based on this example, the study emphasizes the need of a better understanding of the impacts of global change on the biotic constraint constituted by plant pathogens.

Type de publication
  • journal
Type de document
  • article
Classification - Inist-CNRS
  • 1 - sciences appliquees, technologies et medecines
  • 2 - sciences biologiques et medicales
  • 3 - sciences biologiques fondamentales et appliquees. psychologie
Classification - Scopus
  • 1 - Physical Sciences
  • 2 - Environmental Science
  • 3 - General Environmental Science
  • 3 - Ecology
  • 3 - Environmental Chemistry
  • 3 - Global and Planetary Change
Classification - Science Metrix
  • 1 - natural sciences
  • 2 - biology
  • 3 - ecology
Classification - Clarivate Analytics (Subject Category)
  • 1 - science
  • 2 - environmental sciences
  • 2 - ecology
  • 2 - biodiversity conservation
Termes extraits

cinnamomi; pathogen; phytophthora; phytophthora cinnamomi; global change biology; climate change; coakley; scenario; blackwell publishing; scherm; rubra; marcais; climatic; cinnamomi survival; modelling; phytopathology; anomaly; quercus; robur; ipcc; global warming; global change; canker; moreau; harvell; shearer; regionalized; tippett; brasier; january; maximum temperatures; shearer tippett; disease risk; coakley scherm; annual review; global; forest research; canadian journal; epidemiological model; disease development; simulation; arpege model; meteorological stations; quercus rubra; potential range expansion; pathogen survival; brasier scott; special reference; potential impact; atlantic coast; goudriaan zadoks; canker symptoms; avenue gaspard coriolis; survival rate; moreau moreau; minimum temperatures; davis shaw; toulouse cedex; climatological data; climate dynamics; biological model; plant diseases; plant disease; small part; natural variability; other hosts; monthly anomalies; robin; current gcms; winter temperature; geographic distribution; meteorological data; long periods; inner bark; thermal transmission; disease data; cankered trees; cambium level; geographic range; disease expression; nursery plants; temperature data; study period; tree characteristics; primary symptoms; quercus rubra quercus robur; greenhouse gases; regionalized climate scenario; emission scenarios; global environment; phytophthora cinnamomi rands; third assessment report; climate variability; regional scale; variable resolution; hybrid coordinates; output data; study periods; biogeographical modelling; host range; anomaly method; potential changes; beaumont hughes; risk assessment; range shifts; mountainous areas; pedunculate oaks; climatic scenario; temperature anomaly; global circulation model; soil moisture; climatic change; disease control; susceptible hosts; disease zoning; water stress; quercus robur; environmental pollution; plant pathology; bulletin oepp; eucalyptus marginata; western australia; winter survival; climate warming; pathologie forestiere; recherche agronomique; american phytopathological society; mediterranean region; climatic warming; european journal; forest pathology; trunk cankers

Entité nommée
Entité nommée - Emplacement géographique
  • Germany
  • United States
  • Europe
  • Toulouse
  • France
  • Spain
Entité nommée - Organisme
  • -France, Direction
  • France Abstract This
  • IPCC
  • -France, Centre National
  • Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Entité nommée - Personne
November; Marie-Laure Desprez-Loustau; Doug Bailey; Gaspard Coriolis; National
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