Climate change scenarios experiments predict a future reduction in small pelagic fish recruitment in the Humboldt Current system

Année de publication



Global Change Biology 19 1841 1853 6


The Humboldt Current System (HCS) sustains the world′s largest small pelagic fishery. While a cooling of this system has been observed during recent decades, there is debate about the potential impacts of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations on upwelling dynamics and productivity. Recent studies suggest that under increased atmospheric CO2 scenarios the oceanic stratification may strongly increase and upwelling‐favorable winds may remain nearly constant off Peru and increase off Chile. Here we investigate the impact of such climatic conditions on egg and larval dispersal phases, a key stage of small pelagic fish reproduction. We used larval retention rate in a predefined nursery area to provide a proxy for the recruitment level. Numerical experiments are based on hydrodynamics downscaled to the HCS from global simulations forced by pre‐industrial (PI), 2 × CO2 and 4 × CO2 scenarios. A biogeochemical model is applied to the PI and 4 × CO2 scenarios to define a time‐variable nursery area where larval survival is optimum. We test two distinct values of the oxycline depth that limits larval vertical distribution: One corresponding to the present‐day situation and the other corresponding to a shallower oxycline potentially produced by climate change. It appeared that larval retention over the continental shelf increases with enhanced stratification due to regional warming. However, this increase in retention is largely compensated for by a decrease of the nursery area and the shoaling of the oxycline. The underlying dynamics are explained by a combination of stratification effects and mesoscale activity changes. Our results therefore show that future climate change may significantly reduce fish capacity in the HCS with strong ecological, economic and social consequences.

Type de publication
  • journal
Type de document
  • article
Classification - Inist-CNRS
  • 1 - sciences appliquees, technologies et medecines
  • 2 - sciences biologiques et medicales
  • 3 - sciences biologiques fondamentales et appliquees. psychologie
  • 4 - ecologie animale, vegetale et microbienne
Classification - Scopus
  • 1 - Physical Sciences
  • 2 - Environmental Science
  • 3 - General Environmental Science
  • 3 - Ecology
  • 3 - Environmental Chemistry
  • 3 - Global and Planetary Change
Classification - Science Metrix
  • 1 - natural sciences
  • 2 - biology
  • 3 - ecology
Classification - Clarivate Analytics (Subject Category)
  • 1 - science
  • 2 - environmental sciences
  • 2 - ecology
  • 2 - biodiversity conservation
Termes extraits

scenario; pelagic; upwelling; nhcs; ecosystem; humboldt; nursery area; small pelagic; chcs; climate change; zooplankton; oxycline; ichthyoplankton; larva; shcs; global change biology; echevin; bakun; brochier; bertrand; anchovy; blackwell publishing; goubanova; larval; mesoscale; biogeochemical; simulation; retention rates; ebus; lett; oceanic; sardine; engraulis; geophysical; modelling; supplementary table; ringens; retention rate; global warming; continental shelf; larval survival; boundary conditions; upper limit; ichthyoplankton retention; climate change scenarios; chile; global; geophysical research letters; vertical distribution; oxycline depth; mesoscale activity; northern humboldt; marine science; climate dynamics; oceanography; pisces; retention; seasonal cycle; offshore extension; simulations table; shelf retention; national academy; early life stages; negative effect; lasker events; global climate change; primary production; larval retention; geophysical research; ices journal; other ebus; global biogeochemical cycles; larval retention rates; biogeochemical model; engraulis ringens; peru; nursery retention rates; peruvian coast; shallower oxycline; climatic scenarios; horizontal extent; retention processes; different climate scenarios; coastal upwelling; potential impact; median values; water temperature; climate scenario; zooplankton concentrations; ipcc climate change scenarios; wind stress; ichthyoplankton retention rates; main retention areas; global simulations; surface temperature; seasonal variations; mesoscale circulation; northern chile; retention increase; temperature range; sardine sardinops sagax; mackerel trachurus murphyi; supplementary discussion; southern chile; supplementary information; virtual larvae; more time; vertical distributions; year round; depth oxycline; modeling studies; greenhouse warming; recruitment success; adult anchovy; certain extent; jumbo squid dosidicus gigas; population dynamics; oxygen concentrations; reproductive strategies; world ocean atlas; eastern boundary upwelling ecosystems; larval dispersal; decadal trends; climate change impacts; large scale; ocean modelling; social consequences; marine biology; future climate change; marine ecology progress series; canadian journal; aquatic sciences; marine ecosystems; regional warming; climate scenarios; main factor; schooling behaviour; anchovy larvae; small pelagic fish; population levels; life history; fish biology; environmental modelling; peruvian; eddy

Entité nommée
Entité nommée - Emplacement géographique
  • Peru
  • Callao
  • Mexico
  • Chile
  • Centre
  • Dakar
  • San Marcos
  • America
  • Senegal
  • Toulouse
  • France
  • Cambridge
  • Los Indicadores
  • Lima
Entité nommée - Organisme
  • EBUS
  • Cambridge University
  • GLOBEC International Newsletter
  • Deep Sea Research Part
  • Peru Ecosystem Projection Scenario
  • University of California Sea Grant
  • Blackwell Publishing Ltd
  • Geophysical Research Letters
  • Off Chile, the OMZ
Entité nommée - Personne
Marine Science; Christophe Hourdin; Francois Colas; La Pesca; La Sardina; Carolina Parada; K. Goubanova; Marine Biology; Timothe Brochier; Edouard Belin; Evan Mason; El Ni; La Paz; Jean Monnet; Silver Spring; El Ninio; La Variabilidad; Marine Ecosystems
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