Quantifying the sources of spread in climate change experiments

Année de publication



Geophysical Research Letters 39 n/a n/a 24


Energy‐balance models (EBM) constitute a useful framework for summarizing the first‐order physical properties driving the magnitude of the global mean surface air temperature response to an externally imposed radiative perturbation. Here the contributions of these properties to the spread of the temperature responses of an ensemble of coupled Atmosphere‐ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM) of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are evaluated within the framework of a state‐of‐the‐art EBM. These partial contributions are quantified (in equilibrium and transient conditions) using the analysis of variance method. The radiative properties, particularly the strength of the radiative feedback to the global equilibrium surface warming, appear to constitute the most primary source of the spread. Moreover, the adjusted radiative forcing is found to play an important role in the spread of the transient response.

Type de publication
  • journal
Type de document
  • article
Classification - Inist-CNRS
    Classification - Scopus
    • 1 - Physical Sciences
    • 2 - Earth and Planetary Sciences
    • 3 - General Earth and Planetary Sciences
    • 3 - Geophysics
    Classification - Science Metrix
    • 1 - natural sciences
    • 2 - earth & environmental sciences
    • 3 - meteorology & atmospheric sciences
    Classification - Clarivate Analytics (Subject Category)
    • 1 - science
    • 2 - geosciences, multidisciplinary
    Termes extraits

    radiative; aogcm; clim; heat uptake; temperature response; geoffroy; variance; aogcms; multimodel; ocean heat uptake; interaction term; tropospheric adjustment; transient climate change; efficacy factor; climate system; transient temperature response; surface temperature response; climate sensitivity; main contributor; increase experiment; transient surface temperature response; aogcm responses; transient; feedback; climate change experiments; radiative feedbacks; analytical solution; variance method; thermal parameters; combinations ensemble; transient climate response; different contributions; radiative parameters; statistical method; cmip5 aogcms; equilibrium temperature response; standard deviation; major source; parameter; uptake; real aogcm response; cloud component; heat capacity; heat exchange coefficient; individual model; transient response; deep ocean; cloud feedback; primary source; radiative feedback; surface warming; factorial method; anova method; temperature responses; anonymous reviewer; radiative perturbation; climate feedbacks; present study

    Entité nommée
    Entité nommée - Emplacement géographique
    • Toulouse
    • France
    Entité nommée - Organisme
    • World Climate Research Programme
    • Â CO
    • Department of Energy
    • American Geophysical Union
    • Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals
    • European Union FP7
    Entité nommée - Personne
    Gilles Bellon; A. Ribes; O. Geoffroy; G. Coriolis; Hervé Douville; C. Note; Laurent Terray; D. Saint-Martin; Julien Boé
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