Long‐term trends in fish recruitment in the north‐east Atlantic related to climate change

Année de publication



Fisheries Oceanography 16 336 349 4


This study investigates the temporal correspondence between the main patterns of recruitment variations among north‐east Atlantic exploited fish populations and large‐scale climate and temperature indices. It is of primary importance to know what changes in fish stock productivity can be expected in response to climate change, to design appropriate management strategies. The dominant patterns of recruitment variation were extracted using a standardized principal component analysis (PCA). The first principal component (PC) was a long‐term decline, with a stepwise change occurring in 1987. A majority of Baltic Sea, North Sea, west of Scotland and Irish Sea populations, especially the gadoids, have followed this decreasing trend. On the contrary, some herring populations and the populations of boreal ecosystems have followed an opposite increasing trend. The dominant signal in north‐east Atlantic sea surface temperature, also extracted by a PCA, was highly correlated with the increase in the Northern Hemisphere Temperature anomaly, which is considered to be an index of global warming. The first component of recruitment was inversely correlated with these changes in regional and global temperature. The second PC of recruitment was a decadal scale oscillation, which was not correlated with climate indicators. The analysis of correlations between population recruitment and local temperature also indicated that the dominant pattern of recruitment variation may be related to an effect of global warming. The influence of fishing on recruitment, via its effect on the spawning stock biomass (SSB), was also investigated by the analysis of correlations between fishing mortality, SSB and recruitment. Results indicate that fishing can be another factor explaining recruitment trends, probably acting in combination with the effect of climate, but cannot explain alone the patterns of recruitment variation found here.

Type de publication
  • journal
Type de document
  • article
Classification - Inist-CNRS
  • 1 - sciences appliquees, technologies et medecines
  • 2 - sciences biologiques et medicales
  • 3 - sciences biologiques fondamentales et appliquees. psychologie
Classification - Scopus
  • 1 - Life Sciences
  • 2 - Agricultural and Biological Sciences
  • 3 - Aquatic Science
  • 1 - Physical Sciences
  • 2 - Earth and Planetary Sciences
  • 3 - Oceanography
Classification - Science Metrix
  • 1 - applied sciences
  • 2 - agriculture, fisheries & forestry
  • 3 - fisheries
Classification - Clarivate Analytics (Subject Category)
  • 1 - science
  • 2 - oceanography
  • 2 - fisheries
Termes extraits

shing; oceanogr; climate change; plaice; ecosystem; global warming; recruitment; time series; kattegat; beaugrand; brunel; zonal; hurrell; recruitment variations; anomaly; recruitment variation; koster; faroe; climatic; mackenzie; sprat; recruitment time series; fish recruitment; stock size; stenseth; sheries; atlantic oscillation; other populations; gadus morhua; western baltic; herring; climate variability; shing mortality; physical environment; local temperature; recruitment variability; variability; baltic; faroe islands; temperature variations; comparative approach; climate indices; dominant patterns; regime shifts; marine ecosystems; stock biomass; haddock; climatic system; dominant signal; spawner abundance; northern hemisphere; relative importance; surface temperature; central baltic; recruitment trends; english channel; environmental changes; dominant trend; norway pout; previous years; solid line; population recruitment; total variability; correlated; boucher; whiting; reid; myers; shing areas; main patterns; year class; atlantic region; virtual population analysis; recruitment relationship; sheries research; atmospheric circulation; circulation type; ecological processes; circulation index; temporal correspondence; regional scale; data sets; greatest amount; environmental factors; recruitment data; geographical boxes; population scale; atlantic salmon; horse mackerel; negative values; general decline; gadoid populations; recruitment trend; climatic changes; oceanic circulation; haddock herring; english channel celtic; dominant mode; meridional circulation epoch; zonal circulation epoch; planktonic species; negative correlations; second component; local scale; positive loading; highest loadings; reference points; horizontal lines; third column; eastern baltic; large amount; ocean circulation; planktonic species abundance; many populations; primary importance; dominant pattern; northeast atlantic; species range; stagnation period; climate indicators; interspecies relationships; herring plaice; present study; northern hemisphere temperature anomaly; oxford university press; global; correlation

Entité nommée
Entité nommée - Emplacement géographique
  • Baltic Sea
  • UK
  • Norway
  • Riga
  • Lisbon
  • Iceland
  • Norwegian Sea
  • North Sea
Entité nommée - Organisme
  • Iceland and the Faroe Islands
  • IPCC
  • Arctic Iceland Faroe Islands Eastern Baltic Sea West of Scotland Kattegat North Sea Western Baltic Sea Irish Sea Celtic Sea Haddock North
  • Arctic Iceland Gulf of Riga Central Baltic Sea West of Scotland
  • Herring Herring Iceland Cod Herring Saithe
  • Irish Sea Celtic Sea Norway Pout North Sea Plaice Kattegat North Sea Irish Sea English Channel Celtic Sea Saithe North
  • Portugal, and Reykjavik, Iceland
  • Arctic Iceland Faroe Islands North Sea
  • Iceland and Faroe Islands
  • ICES
  • Iceland, North Sea and Gulf of Riga
Entité nommée - Personne
J. Boucher; M. Laurans; Global; F. Blanchard; T. Brunel; D. Schoeman; Figure
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