Impact of twenty‐first century climate change on diadromous fish spread over Europe, North Africa and the Middle East

Année de publication



Global Change Biology 15 1072 1089 5


Climate change is expected to drive species ranges towards the poles and to have a strong influence on species distributions. In this study, we focused on diadromous species that are of economical and ecological importance in the whole of Europe. We investigated the potential distribution of all diadromous fish regularly encountered in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East (28 species) under conditions predicted for twenty‐first century climate change. To do so, we investigated the 1900 distribution of each species in 196 basins spread across all of Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. Four levels were used to semiquantitatively describe the abundance of species, that is missing, rare, common and abundant. We then selected five variables describing the prevailing climate in the basins, the physical nature of the basins and reflecting historical events known to have affected freshwater fish distribution. Logistic regressions with a four‐level ordinal response variable were used to develop species‐specific models. These predictive models related the observed distribution of these species in 1900 to the most explanatory combination of variables. Finally, we selected the A2 SRES scenario and the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) global climate model (GCM) to obtain climate variables (temperature and precipitation) at the end of this century. We used these 2100 variables in our models and obtained maps of climatically suitable and unsuitable basins, percentages of contraction or expansion for each species. Twenty‐two models were successfully built, that is there were five species for which no model could be established because their distribution range was too narrow and the Acipenser sturio model failed during calibration. All the models selected temperature or/and precipitation as explanatory variables. Responses to climate change were species‐specific but could be classified into three categories: little or no change in the distribution (five species), expansion of the distribution range (three species gaining suitable basins mainly northward) and contraction of the distribution (14 species losing suitable basins). Shifting ranges were in accordance with those found in other studies and underlined the high sensitivity of diadromous fish to modifications in their environment.

Type de publication
  • journal
Type de document
  • article
Classification - Inist-CNRS
  • 1 - sciences appliquees, technologies et medecines
  • 2 - sciences biologiques et medicales
  • 3 - sciences biologiques fondamentales et appliquees. psychologie
Classification - Scopus
  • 1 - Physical Sciences
  • 2 - Environmental Science
  • 3 - General Environmental Science
  • 3 - Ecology
  • 3 - Environmental Chemistry
  • 3 - Global and Planetary Change
Classification - Science Metrix
  • 1 - natural sciences
  • 2 - biology
  • 3 - ecology
Classification - Clarivate Analytics (Subject Category)
  • 1 - science
  • 2 - environmental sciences
  • 2 - ecology
  • 2 - biodiversity conservation
Termes extraits

salmo; alosa; climate change; anguilla; global change biology; diadromous; freshwater; acipenser; blackwell publishing; ecology; vimba; ordinal; salar; authors journal compilation; precipitation; shes; harrell; predictor; suitable basins; thuiller; salmo salar; alpinus; salvelinus; trutta; kottelat; ecosystem; freyhof; guisan; climatic; fishery; caspian; aquatic; huso; distribution range; coregonus; distribution area; scenario; sturio; fallax; bootstrap; sheries; anguilla anguilla; vimba vimba; salmo trutta; salvelinus alpinus; study area; diadromous species; basin; american fisheries society; fish biology; global; canadian journal; fisheries management; warmwater species; global change; global warming; explanatory variables; alosa fallax; southern part; favorable basins; twentieth century; species richness; freshwater ecosystems; acipenser naccarii; thermal habitat; southern baltic; aquatic sciences; century climate change; vegetation science; kottelat freyhof; modeling process; ordinal models; salmo caspius; surface area; sres scenario; functional populations; drainage basin; acipenser sturio model; spatial autocorrelation; petromyzon marinus; blackwell; biology; salmon; deviance; high level; freshwater animals; predictive purposes; annual precipitation; ordinal classes; northern basins; climatic variables; threshold values; dirnbock diullinger; times atlas; foundation core team; osmerus eperlanus; uviatilis petromyzon marinus anguilla anguilla acipenser gueldenstaedtii acipenser naccarii acipenser stellatus acipenser sturio huso huso alosa alosa alosa fallax alosa immaculata alosa tanaica vimba vimba osmerus eperlanus coregonus; salmo caspius salmo labrax salmo salar salmo trutta salvelinus alpinus liza ramada platichthys; alosa algeriensis; alosa caspia; alosa kessleri; alosa volgensis; coregonus oxyrinchus; climate change scenario; nordic coregonids; heuristic checklist; several species; guisan thuiller; southern caspian; abundant populations; large basins; liza ramada; iberian peninsula; second step; smooth interannual variability; fresh waters; climate change impacts; alosa alosa; large rivers; further study; climate change scenarios; biotic homogenization; competitive exclusion; biotic interactions; distribution models; marine environments; higher latitudes; more species; guisan harrell; similar responses; range shifts; western europe; freshwater fish; potential impacts; continental scale; model version; hadley centre; ordinal response; historical events; potential distribution; agricultural organization; species distributions; functional ecology; folia zoologica; plant species; cambridge university press; brown trout salmo trutta; recent climate change; atlantic salmon

Entité nommée
Entité nommée - Emplacement géographique
  • Verdun
  • UK
  • Scotland
  • Turkey
  • Canada
  • American
  • Caspian Sea
  • Tunisia
  • Europe
  • Adriatic Sea
  • America
  • Black Sea
  • Ireland
  • France
  • Quebec
  • Iceland
  • Anguilla
  • St. Lawrence
  • Italy
  • England
  • Iran
Entité nommée - Organisme
  • Tunisia, TUR
  • United Kingdom, EGY
  • Bulgaria, HRV
  • Ireland, ITA
  • University of Napoli
  • Germany, GEO
  • European Environment Agency
  • Croatia, DNK
  • France, FIN
  • Romania, RUS
  • Georgia, GRC
  • Fisheries Research Institute, Finland
  • Germany and Poland
  • Biology Department, Italy
  • Turkey, UKR
  • Denmark, GBR
  • Ministry of Ecology and Sustainable
  • The Times Atlas of the World – Comprehensive Edition
  • R Foundation Core Team
  • Kazakhstan, LVA
  • Climate Research Unit Time-Series
  • IPCC
  • Latvia, LTU
  • Spain, SWE
  • North Norway and Iceland
  • Belgium, BGR
  • Greece, ISL
  • National Of
  • Aristotle University
  • Climate Change Research Set of Scenarios
  • Netherlands, NOR
  • Adour-Garonne Water Agency
  • Sweden, TUN
  • Azerbaijan, BEL
  • Poland, PRT
  • Egypt, FRA
  • Portugal, ROM
  • Finland, DEU
  • Blackwell Publishing Ltd
  • Algeria, AZE
  • Lithuania, MAR
  • In New Zealand, Oncorhynchus
  • Iceland, IRN
  • Zoology Department, Greece
  • Morocco, NLD
  • Italy, KAZ
  • France and Portugal
  • Danube Delta National Institute for Research and Development, Romania
  • National Institute of Marine
  • Norway, POL
  • Albania, DZA
  • Environment Agency, UK
  • Environmental System Research Institute
  • Iran, IRL
Entité nommée - Personne
European; G. Lassalle; Nova Scotia; Christof Bigler; Karin Limburg; Hadley Centre; Stavros Economidis; Don River; Pier Giorgio; Martin Daufresne
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