Agroclimatic conditions in Europe under climate change

Année de publication



Global Change Biology 17 2298 2318 7


To date, projections of European crop yields under climate change have been based almost entirely on the outputs of crop‐growth models. While this strategy can provide good estimates of the effects of climatic factors, soil conditions and management on crop yield, these models usually do not capture all of the important aspects related to crop management, or the relevant environmental factors. Moreover, crop‐simulation studies often have severe limitations with respect to the number of crops covered or the spatial extent. The present study, based on agroclimatic indices, provides a general picture of agroclimatic conditions in western and central Europe (study area lays between 8.5°W–27°E and 37–63.5°N), which allows for a more general assessment of climate‐change impacts. The results obtained from the analysis of data from 86 different sites were clustered according to an environmental stratification of Europe. The analysis was carried for the baseline (1971–2000) and future climate conditions (time horizons of 2030, 2050 and with a global temperature increase of 5 °C) based on outputs of three global circulation models. For many environmental zones, there were clear signs of deteriorating agroclimatic condition in terms of increased drought stress and shortening of the active growing season, which in some regions become increasingly squeezed between a cold winter and a hot summer. For most zones the projections show a marked need for adaptive measures to either increase soil water availability or drought resistance of crops. This study concludes that rainfed agriculture is likely to face more climate‐related risks, although the analyzed agroclimatic indicators will probably remain at a level that should permit rainfed production. However, results suggests that there is a risk of increasing number of extremely unfavorable years in many climate zones, which might result in higher interannual yield variability and constitute a challenge for proper crop management.

Type de publication
  • journal
Type de document
  • article
Classification - Inist-CNRS
  • 1 - sciences appliquees, technologies et medecines
  • 2 - sciences biologiques et medicales
  • 3 - sciences biologiques fondamentales et appliquees. psychologie
Classification - Scopus
  • 1 - Physical Sciences
  • 2 - Environmental Science
  • 3 - General Environmental Science
  • 3 - Ecology
  • 3 - Environmental Chemistry
  • 3 - Global and Planetary Change
Classification - Science Metrix
  • 1 - natural sciences
  • 2 - biology
  • 3 - ecology
Classification - Clarivate Analytics (Subject Category)
  • 1 - science
  • 2 - environmental sciences
  • 2 - ecology
  • 2 - biodiversity conservation
Termes extraits

climate change; agroclimatic; precipitation; sowing; climatic; june; april; global change biology; blackwell publishing; huglin; iglesias; olesen; scenario; suitable days; agroclimatic conditions; huglin index; unitless; trnka; eitzinger; reidsma; dubrovsky; climatic change; rainfed; maize; climatology; gcms; ncar; metzger; chmielewski; last frost; vucetic; smit; july; crop production; evapotranspiration; alpine; agronomy; hadcm; september; czech; january; overview; viticulture; interannual; echam; meteorology; quiroga; global; grassland; variability; suitability; agroclimatic indices; early spring; sowing window; winter wheat; czech republic; international journal; global radiation; grassland productivity; interannual variability; intergovernmental panel; other zones; zone; agricultural land; cambridge university press; climate research; european journal; suitable sowing days; climate change impacts; late spring; agroclimatic indicators; crop management; spring barley; drought; high climate sensitivity; suitable harvest days; emission scenario; sowing windows; soil capacity; agricultural water management; crop growth; crop productivity; agroclimatic parameters; climate changes; drought days; life sciences; rainfed agriculture; medium climate sensitivity; crop yields; global warming; european agriculture; rainfed crop production; forest meteorology; global temperature increase; present study; soil conditions; fourth assessment report; natural resources; climatic conditions; climate; blackwell; harvesting; crop; limited number; thermal suitability; individual zones; unfavorable years; absolute values; olesen bindi; impact studies; different scenarios; change patterns; colder half; crop development; huglin indices; present climate conditions; agricultural regions; minimum temperatures; water availability; harvest suitability; global climate change impacts studies; meteorological research institute; environmental zone; sowing days; sunshine duration; northern european conditions; fruit trees; early sowing; winter crops; continental climate; largest number; wind speed; agricultural sciences; present agroclimatic conditions; mediterranean mountains; interseasonal variability; national institute; night frosts; high proportion; drought stress; maximum soil capacity; winter cereals; summer drought; spring cereals; sowing conditions; summer months; southern parts; water stress; drier summers; climatic variability; adaptive measures; heat waves; rainfall series; higher proportion; winter wheat yields; arable crops; acta horticulturae; wine quality; european states; agricultural systems; european crop yields; agricultural policy; climate variability; more details; carbon dioxide; crop improvement; methodological approach; global food production; european climate; potential productivity; simulation study; annual review; agriculture systems; klein tank; soil moisture; time series; climate change scenarios; climate change impact; special report; eastern mediterranean; assessment report; central europe; rainfed production; philosophical transactions; royal society; global ecology; crop responses; agriculture science; standard deviation; irrigation; indicator

Entité nommée
Entité nommée - Emplacement géographique
  • Avignon
  • Uppsala
  • Novi Sad
  • Switzerland
  • Germany
  • Finland
  • Australia
  • Poland
  • UK
  • Norway
  • Austria
  • Serbia
  • Scotland
  • Bratislava
  • Prague
  • Madrid
  • Bologna
  • Brno
  • Bulgaria
  • Europe
  • Czech Republic
  • Vienna
  • Toulouse
  • Rome
  • Ireland
  • Croatia
  • Copenhagen
  • Slovakia
  • Cambridge
  • Italy
  • Mikkeli
  • Sweden
  • Zagreb
  • Spain
  • Zurich
  • Belgium
  • Netherlands
Entité nommée - Organisme
  • FAO
  • University of Novi Sad
  • Institute of Atmospheric Physics
  • BOKU
  • Norwegian University
  • Bulgaria Abstract To
  • Meteorological Institute University, Bonn, Germany
  • Commission of the European Communities, Brussels
  • National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology
  • Meteorological Research Institute, Korea
  • Cambridge University
  • Meteo-France, Direction
  • Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Russia
  • Meteorological Research Institute, Japan
  • Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia
  • University of Florence
  • International Turf Grass Research Conference, Santiago, Chile
  • Tanikon Research Station, Air Pollution and Climate
  • National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
  • Peter-Jordan Str
  • Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Canada
  • Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA
  • State Research Institute
  • COM
  • Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences
  • Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Germany
  • UK Met
  • Blackwell Publishing Ltd
  • Â CO
  • Samnordisk planteforedling
  • National Research Council, Via P
  • Flemish Institute for Technological Research, Boeretang
  • Agrometeorological Department, Meteorological and Hydrological Service
  • Institute of Meteorology, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences
  • Agricultural Landscape Research, Institute for Landscape Systems Analysis, Eberswalder Str
  • National University of Ireland, St Annes, North Campus, Maynooth, Co
  • Department of Plant, Soil and Environmental Science
  • Institute of Soil Science and Plant
  • Mendel University
  • Austria, ICAM/MAP
  • PESETA Research Project, EUR
  • Aarhus University
  • Climate Research, Norway
  • State Meteorological Agency
  • National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
  • Agrifood Research Finland, Plant Production Research, FI
  • Industrial Research Organization, Australia
Entité nommée - Personne
Alps; The; Leonardo Prieto; Data Group; Final Report; HadCM; Jrgen Eivind
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