The Mediterranean Sea as a ‘cul‐de‐sac’ for endemic fishes facing climate change

Année de publication



Global Change Biology 16 3233 3245 12


The Mediterranean Sea is a hotspot of biodiversity, and climate warming is expected to have a significant influence on its endemic fish species. However, no previous studies have predicted whether fish species will experience geographic range extensions or contractions as a consequence of warming. Here, we projected the potential future climatic niches of 75 Mediterranean Sea endemic fish species based on a global warming scenario implemented with the Mediterranean model OPAMED8 and a multimodel inference, which included uncertainty. By 2070–2099, the average surface temperature of the Mediterranean Sea was projected to warm by 3.1 °C. Projections for 2041–2060 are that 25 species would qualify for the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) Red List, and six species would become extinct. By 2070–2099, 45 species were expected to qualify for the IUCN Red List whereas 14 were expected to become extinct. By the middle of the 21st century, the coldest areas of the Mediterranean Sea (Adriatic Sea and Gulf of Lion) would act as a refuge for cold‐water species, but by the end of the century, those areas were projected to become a ‘cul‐de‐sac’ that would drive those species towards extinction. In addition, the range size of endemic species was projected to undergo extensive fragmentation, which is a potentially aggravating factor. Since a majority of endemic fishes are specialists, regarding substratum and diet, we may expect a reduced ability to track projected climatic niches. As a whole, 25% of the Mediterranean Sea continental shelf was predicted to experience a total modification of endemic species assemblages by the end of the 21st century. This expected turnover rate could be mitigated by marine protected areas or accelerated by fishing pressure or competition from exotic fishes. It remains a challenge to predict how these assemblage modifications might affect ecosystem function.

Type de publication
  • journal
Type de document
  • article
Classification - Inist-CNRS
  • 1 - sciences appliquees, technologies et medecines
  • 2 - sciences biologiques et medicales
  • 3 - sciences biologiques fondamentales et appliquees. psychologie
Classification - Scopus
  • 1 - Physical Sciences
  • 2 - Environmental Science
  • 3 - General Environmental Science
  • 3 - Ecology
  • 3 - Environmental Chemistry
  • 3 - Global and Planetary Change
Classification - Science Metrix
  • 1 - natural sciences
  • 2 - biology
  • 3 - ecology
Classification - Clarivate Analytics (Subject Category)
  • 1 - science
  • 2 - environmental sciences
  • 2 - ecology
  • 2 - biodiversity conservation
Termes extraits

endemic; climate change; thuiller; global change biology; shes; iucn; ecology; climatic; rais; lasram; global warming; blackwell publishing; ecosystem; biodiversity; araujo; endemic species; continental shelf; rais lasram; modelling; parmesan; hsms; habitat fragmentation; species distributions; ipcc; climate warming; dulvy; biotic; mouillot; extinct; global; generalist; scenario; mediterranean; northern adriatic; deeper water; threat indicator; geographic distributions; species distribution models; assemblage; global change; geographic range; rais lasram mouillot; climatic niches; range shifts; ecological modelling; many species; demersal species; climate changes; western mediterranean; hiddink hofstede; ensemble forecasting; ecological; extinction; turnover; niche; marine reserves; international union; geographic ranges; natural resources; potential future; species turnover; habitat generalists; habitat specialists; diet specialists; diet generalists; marine ecosystems; endemic mediterranean; suitable habitats; surface temperature; extinction rates; geographical ranges; species vulnerability; exotic species; species composition; winner species; gain range size; geographic distribution; iucn status; marine series; coldest areas; bianchi morri; quignard tomasini; fragmentation; species; biology; water temperatures; spatial pattern analysis program; population status; diaz almela; ressources aquatiques; global ecology; thermal conditions; thermophilic species; mediterranean model opamed8; avenue charles nicolle; intergovernmental panel; froese pauly; fnam atlas; ordinary kriging; spatial responses; main driver; degrees latitude; spatial distributions; climatic constraints; range size; round sardinella; sardinella aurita; gonad maturation; predictive ability; atlantic ocean; climatic habitats; population decline; opdam wascher; development core team; initial data; true skill statistic; model accuracy; genetic diversity; extreme events; grid cell; species threat scores; spatial fragmentation; quantifying landscape structure; suitable habitat; levantine basin; ipcc scenario; fragmented habitats; loser species; extinction risk; specialist species; warming seas; solea aegyptiaca; pelagic species; planktivorous species; carnivorous species; distribution areas; northern aegean; gobius geniporus; lipophrys nigriceps; endemic species assemblages; whole assemblage; range sizes; high probability; generalist species; climatic niche; local populations; species survival; present study; spatial heterogeneity; potential impacts; water masses; case study; habitat suitability models; marine species; marine ecology progress series; marine biodiversity; geophysical research letters; biological conservation; species distribution; ecological applications; national academy; turnover rate; range margins; canadian journal; aquatic sciences; plant species; thermal habitat fragmentation; warming; habitat

Entité nommée
Entité nommée - Emplacement géographique
  • Sardinia
  • Montpellier
  • Tunis
  • Grenoble
  • Mediterranean Sea
  • Morocco
  • Tunisia
  • EPS
  • Angola
  • France
Entité nommée - Organisme
  • R Development Core Team
  • FAO
  • IUCN
  • IPCC
  • -France, Centre National
  • NCDC
  • Blackwell Publishing Ltd
  • NOAA
  • National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System
  • National Climatic Data Center
  • France Abstract The Mediterranean Sea
Entité nommée - Personne
W. Thuiller; Gaspard Coriolis; Of; Ben Rais; F. Ben Rais; Charles Nicolle; J. Fourier
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