Titre

Optimal growth with adaptation to climate change

Année de publication

2013

Source

Climatic Change 2013 117 691 710 4

ISSN
0165-0009
Résumé

Abstract: We find that approximately a quarter of the world’s productive capital could be sensitive to climate; therefore, this capital faces the risk of accelerated obsolescence in a world warming by an average of 0.2 °C per decade. We examine the question of optimal adaptation to climate change in a vintage capital growth model without uncertainty. Along the optimal pathway, adaptation is proactive with an anticipation period of approximately twenty years. While there is additional investment in this scenario compared with a no-climate-change baseline, the overall cost to adapt is low relative to the potential losses from maladaptation. Over-investment in protection capital allows the economy to be consistently well-adapted to climate; thus, such a policy prevents transient maladaptation costs. Sensitivity analysis with an integrated assessment model suggests that costs could be ten times larger if adaptation only begins after vulnerable sectors are impacted.

Type de publication
  • journal
Type de document
  • research-article
Classification
 
Classification - Inist-CNRS
    Classification - Scopus
      Classification - Science Metrix
        Classification - Clarivate Analytics (Subject Category)
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              Entité nommée - Personne
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